Information compiled by David Hanks
(First posted on 26 February 2006)
Read about my formula for determining Best Picture nominees here.
DG win + ACE win + WG win = Best Picture win (100% of the time since 1961)
DG win + ACE win = Best Picture win (95% of the time since 1961)
DG win + WG win = Best Picture win (82% of the time since 1961)
ACE win + WG win = Best Picture win (67% of the time since 1961)
The 2010 Best Picture Nominees (Guild Winners in bold):
2009 - Avatar - James Cameron (DG), Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua, James Cameron (ACE), James Cameron (WG)
2009 - The Hurt Locker - Kathryn Bigelow (DG), Bob Murawski, Chris Innis (ACE), Mark Boal (WG)
2009 - Up in the Air - Jason Reitman (DG), Dana Glauberman (ACE), Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner (WG)
2009 - District 9 - Julian Clarke (ACE)
2009 - Inglourious Basterds - Quentin Tarantino (DG)
2009 - Precious - Lee Daniels (DG), Geoffrey Fletcher (WG)
2009 - A Serious Man - Joel Coen & Ethan Coen (WG), Roderick Jaynes [Joel Coen & Ethan Coen] (ACE)
2009 - Up - Kevin Nolting (ACE)
2009 - The Blind Side - (no DG/WG/ACE nominations)
2009 - An Education - (no DG/WG/ACE nominations)
When the Director's Guild (DG) winner AND one of the American Cinema Editors (ACE) winners AND one of the Writers Guild (WG) winners are ALL given awards for the same film, that film has been named Best Picture 7 of 7 times (100%) during the last 48 years (1961-2008). [Best Picture winners in bold]
2008 - Slumdog Millionaire - Danny Boyle (DG)
2008 - Slumdog Millionaire - Chris Dickens (ACE)
2008 - Slumdog Millionaire - Simon Beaufoy (WG)
2006 - The Departed - Martin Scorsese (DG)
2006 - The Departed - Thelma Schoonmaker (ACE)
2006 - The Departed - William Monahan (WG)
1994 - Forrest Gump - Robert Zemeckis (DG)
1994 - Forrest Gump - Arthur Schmidt (ACE)
1994 - Forrest Gump - Eric Roth (WG)
1993 - Schindler's List - Steven Spielberg (DG)
1993 - Schindler's List - Michael Kahn (ACE)
1993 - Schindler's List - Steven Zaillian (WG)
1990 - Dances With Wolves - Kevin Costner (DG)
1990 - Dances With Wolves - Neil Travis (ACE)
1990 - Dances With Wolves - Michael Blake (WG)
1970 - Patton - Franklin Schaffner (DG)
1970 - Patton - Hugh S. Fowler (ACE)
1970 - Patton - Francis Ford Coppola, Edmund H. North (WG)
1965 - The Sound of Music - Robert Wise (DG)
1965 - The Sound of Music - William Reynolds (ACE)
1965 - The Sound of Music - Ernest Lehman (WG)
When the Director's Guild (DG) winner AND one of the American Cinema Editors (ACE) winners are both given awards for the same film, that film has been named Best Picture 19 of 20 times (95.0%) - the lone exception was in 1998 during the last 48 years (1961-2008). [Best Picture winners in bold]
2008 - Slumdog Millionaire - Danny Boyle (DG)
2008 - Slumdog Millionaire - Chris Dickens (ACE)
2006 - The Departed - Martin Scorsese (DG)
2006 - The Departed - Thelma Schoonmaker (ACE)
2003 - Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King - Peter Jackson (DG)
2003 - Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King - Jamie Selkirk (ACE)
2002 - Chicago - Rob Marshall (DG)
2002 - Chicago - Martin Walsh (ACE)
1998 - Saving Private Ryan - Steven Spielberg (DG)
1998 - Saving Private Ryan - Michael Kahn (ACE)
1997 - Titanic - James Cameron (DG)
1997 - Titanic - Conrad Buff IV, James Cameron, Richard A. Harris (ACE)
1996 - The English Patient - Anthony Minghella (DG)
1996 - The English Patient - Walter Murch (ACE)
1994 - Forrest Gump - Robert Zemeckis (DG)
1994 - Forrest Gump - Arthur Schmidt (ACE)
1993 - Schindler's List - Steven Spielberg (DG)
1993 - Schindler's List - Michael Kahn (ACE)
1992 - Unforgiven - Clint Eastwood (DG)
1992 - Unforgiven - Joel Cox (ACE)
1990 - Dances with Wolves - Kevin Costner (DG)
1990 - Dances With Wolves - Neil Travis (ACE)
1987 - The Last Emperor - Bernardo Bertolucci (DG)
1987 - The Last Emperor - Gabriella Cristiani (ACE)
1986 - Platoon - Oliver Stone (DG)
1986 - Platoon - Claire Simpson (ACE)
1984 - Amadeus - Milos Forman (DG)
1984 - Amadeus - Nina Danevic, Michael Chandler (ACE)
1982 - Gandhi - Richard Attenborough (DG)
1982 - Gandhi - John Bloom (ACE)
1978 - The Deer Hunter - Michael Cimino (DG)
1978 - The Deer Hunter - Peter Zinner (ACE)
1976 - Rocky - John G. Avildsen (DG)
1976 - Rocky - Richard Halsey, Scott Conrad (ACE)
1973 - The Sting - George Roy Hill (DG)
1973 - The Sting - William Reynolds (ACE)
1970 - Patton - Franklin Schaffner (DG)
1970 - Patton - Hugh S. Fowler (ACE)
1965 - The Sound of Music - Robert Wise (DG)
1965 - The Sound of Music - William Reynolds (ACE)
When the Director's Guild (DG) winner AND one of the Writers Guild (WG) winners are both given awards for the same film, that film has been named Best Picture 26 of 33 times (78.8%) - the exceptions were in 2005, 1981, 1968, 1967, 1952, 1951, 1948/9 during the last 60 years (1948-2008). The numbers increase to 19 of 23 (82.6%) during the last 48 years (1961-2008). [Best Picture winners in bold]
2008 - Slumdog Millionaire - Danny Boyle (DG)
2008 - Slumdog Millionaire - Simon Beaufoy (WG)
2007 - No Country for Old Men - Joel Coen, Ethan Coen (DG)
2007 - No Country for Old Men - Joel Coen, Ethan Coen (WG)
2006 - The Departed - Martin Scorsese (DG)
2006 - The Departed - William Monahan (WG)
2005 - Brokeback Mountain - Ang Lee (DG)
2005 - Brokeback Mountain - Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana (WG)
2001 - A Beautiful Mind - Ron Howard (DG)
2001 - A Beautiful Mind - Akiva Goldsman (WG)
1999 - American Beauty - Sam Mendes (DG)
1999 - American Beauty - Alan Ball (WG)
1994 - Forrest Gump - Robert Zemeckis (DG)
1994 - Forrest Gump - Eric Roth (WG)
1993 - Schindler's List - Steven Spielberg (DG)
1993 - Schindler's List - Steven Zaillian (WG)
1991 - The Silence of the Lambs - Jonathan Demme (DG)
1991 - The Silence of The Lambs - Ted Tally (WG)
1990 - Dances With Wolves - Kevin Costner (DG)
1990 - Dances With Wolves - Michael Blake (WG)
1981 - Reds - Warren Beatty (DG)
1981 - Reds - Warren Beatty, Trevor Griffiths (WG)
1980 - Ordinary People - Robert Redford (DG)
1980 - Ordinary People - Alvin Sargent (WG)
1979 - Kramer vs. Kramer - Robert Benton (DG)
1979 - Kramer vs. Kramer - Robert Benton (WG)
1977 - Annie Hall - Woody Allen (DG)
1977 - Annie Hall - Woody Allen, Marshall Brickman (WG)
1975 - One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest - Milos Forman (DG)
1975 - One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest - Lawrence Hauben, Bo Goldman (WG)
1974 - The Godfather, Part II - Francis Ford Coppola (DG)
1974 - The Godfather, Part II - Francis Ford Coppola, Mario Puzo (WG)
1971 - The French Connection - William Friedkin (DG)
1971 - The French Connection - Ernest Tidyman (WG)
1970 - Patton - Franklin Schaffner (DG)
1970 - Patton - Francis Ford Coppola, Edmund H. North (WG)
1969 - Midnight Cowboy - John Schlesinger (DG)
1969 - Midnight Cowboy - Waldo Salt (WG)
1968 - The Lion in Winter - Anthony Harvey (DG)
1968 - The Lion in Winter - James Goldman (WG)
1967 - The Graduate - Mike Nichols (DG)
1967 - The Graduate - Calder Willingham, Buck Henry (WG)
1965 - The Sound of Music - Robert Wise (DG)
1965 - The Sound of Music - Ernest Lehman (WG)
1961 - West Side Story - Robert Wise (DG)
1961 - West Side Story - Ernest Lehman (WG)
1960 - The Apartment - Billy Wilder (DG)
1960 - The Apartment - Billy Wilder, I.A.L. Diamond (WG)
1958 - Gigi - Vincente Minnelli (DG)
1958 - Gigi - Alan Jay Lerner (WG)
1955 - Marty - Delbert Mann (DG)
1955 - Marty - Paddy Chayefsky (WG)
1954 - On the Waterfront - Elia Kazan (DG)
1954 - On the Waterfront - Budd Schulberg (WG)
1953 - From Here to Eternity - Fred Zinnemann (DG)
1953 - From Here to Eternity - Daniel Taradash (WG)
1952 - The Quiet Man - John Ford (DG)
1952 - The Quiet Man - Frank S. Nugent (WG)
1951 - A Place in the Sun - George Stevens (DG)
1951 - A Place in the Sun - Michael Wilson, Harry Brown, Patrick Kearney (WG)
1950 - All About Eve - Joseph Mankiewicz (DG)
1950 - All About Eve - Joseph L. Mankiewicz (WG)
1949 - All the King's Men - Robert Rossen (DG)
1949 - All the King's Men - Robert Rossen (WG)
1948 - A Letter to Three Wives - Joseph Mankiewicz (DG)
1949 - A Letter to Three Wives - Joseph L. Mankiewicz, Vera Caspary (WG - different calendar year for awards)
When one of the Writer's Guild (WG) winners AND one of the American Cinema Editors (ACE) winners are both given awards for the same film, that film has been named Best Picture 9 of 13 times (69.2%) during the last 48 years (1961-2008). [Best Picture winners in bold]
2008 - Slumdog Millionaire - Simon Beaufoy (WG)
2008 - Slumdog Millionaire - Chris Dickens (ACE)
2006 - The Departed - William Monahan (WG)
2006 - The Departed - Thelma Schoonmaker (ACE)
2005 - Crash - Paul Haggis; Robert Moresco (WG)
2005 - Crash - Hughes Winborne (ACE)
1995 - Braveheart - Randall Wallace (WG)
1995 - Braveheart - Steven Rosenblum (ACE)
1994 - Forrest Gump - Eric Roth (WG)
1994 - Forrest Gump - Arthur Schmidt (ACE)
1993 - Schindler's List - Steven Zaillian (WG)
1993 - Schindler's List - Michael Kahn (ACE)
1990 - Dances With Wolves - Michael Blake (WG)
1990 - Dances With Wolves - Neil Travis (ACE)
1985 - Witness - Earl W. Wallace; William Kelley (WG)
1985 - Witness - Thom Noble (ACE)
1977 - The Turning Point - Arthur Laurents (WG)
1977 - The Turning Point - William Reynolds (ACE)
1972 - Cabaret - Jay Presson Allen (WG)
1972 - Cabaret - David Bretherton (ACE)
1970 - Patton - Francis Ford Coppola; Edmund H. North (WG)
1970 - Patton - Hugh S. Fowler (ACE)
1965 - The Sound of Music - Ernest Lehman (WG)
1965 - The Sound of Music - William Reynolds (ACE)
1964 - Mary Poppins - Bill Walsh; Don DaGradi (WG)
1964 - Mary Poppins - Cotton Warburton (ACE)
This information was compiled after comparing complete lists of DG, WG, ACE, and Best Picture award winners. Films selected as Best Picture are in bold. All others listed above were nominated for Best Picture.
The Directors Guild (DG) has given awards every year since 1948. They additionally gave five awards between 1938-1945. (award list)
The American Cinema Editors (ACE) have given awards every year since 1961. (award list)
The Writers Guild (WG) has given awards every year since 1948. They initially used a different calendar year for awards than the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. (award list)
Further Info About the Formulas and Methods
Statistically speaking, this is not a rule but a formula showing a percentage of likelihood - and yes, rules are made to be broken and formulas are fallible (ie: a 1998 Best Picture prediction of Saving Private Ryan based on DG+ACE would have been incorrect). And of course, these formulas only work in the years when there is an overlap with the Guild awards mentioned above - which is rarely for DG+ACE+WG, but is approaching half the time for DG+ACE as well as DG+WG.
What I was looking for in a formula was a correlation between indicators with large enough sample sizes to be meaningful. While DG+ACE+WG has a sample size of 48 (years), there are only six occasions of overlapping data - however, those six occasions predict the Best Picture 100% of the time.
I think the stronger indicator might be DG+ACE though. With a sample size of 48 years (1961-2008), there are 20 occasions of overlapping data (41.7%), with 19 of those occasions correctly predicting the Best Picture (95% accuracy). I'll leave it to the mathematicians to determine the statistical significance of these results, although I think DG+ACE might actually be the strongest indicator I've found.
I didn't include stats from the other guilds in my formulas for these reasons:
1. Except for the MPSE:54 (54 years), the sample sizes are too small *(PG:20 - SAG:14 - ASC:22 - ADG:12 - CDG:10 - MHG:5 - CAS:15 - VES:6).
2. With the possible exception of the PG:12/20 (PG overlapping data: 12 Best Pictures out of 20 PG awards), there was so little correlation of data between Best Picture winners and other Guild winners, there was no further use in studying the possibilities *(SAG:9/63 - ASC:9/23 - ADG:4/13 - CDG:2/11 - MHG:0/5 - MPSE:2/36 - CAS:5/16 - VES:1/7).
As for the importance of editing and why it's such a big predictor, start with reading some basics in wikipedia:
"Film editing is an art form which can either make or break a film. A film editor works with the layers of images, the story, the music, the rhythm, the pace, shapes the actors' performances, "re-directing" and often re-writing the film during the editing process, honing the infinite possibilities of the juxtaposition of small snippets of film into a creative, coherent, cohesive whole... Film editors often are responsible for pulling together all of the elements of story, dialogue, music, sound effects, visual effects, rhythm and pace of a film. In the making of a film, the editors usually play a dynamic and creative role." In essence, screenwriting is storytelling during pre-production; editing is storytelling during post-production.
* Abbreviations: DG: Directors Guild; ACE: American Cinema Editors; WG: Writers Guild; PG: Producers Guild; SAG: Screen Actors Guild; ASC: American Society of Cinematographers; ADG: Art Directors Guild; CDG: Costume Designers Guild; MHG: Makeup and Hairstylists Guild; MPSE: Motion Picture Sound Editors; CAS: Cinema Audio Society; VES: Visual Effects Society.